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49

Moisés Naím, “The Most Important Alliance You’ve Never Heard Of,” Atlantic, February 17, 2014.

50

Ibid.

51

Peter Zeihan, The Accidental Superpower: The Next Generation of American Preeminence and the Coming Global Disorder (New York: Twelve, 2014).

52

Sumana Manohar, Hugo Scott-Gall, and Megha Chaturvedi, “Small Dots, Big Picture: Is Trade Set to Fade?” Goldman Sachs Research, September 24, 2015.

53

Dani Rodrik, “The Perils of Premature Deindustrialization,” Project Syndicate, 2013.

54

Ejaz Ghani, William Robert Kerr, and Alex Segura, “Informal Tradables and the Employment Growth of Indian Manufacturing,” World Bank Policy Research Working Paper no. 7206, March 2, 2015.

55

Jaithirth Rao, “How They Killed Our Factories,” Indian Express, January 20, 2014.

56

Ejaz Ghani and Stephen D. O’Connell, “Can Service Be a Growth Escalator in Low-Income Countries?” World Bank Policy Research Working Paper, 2014.

57

Ramana Nanda and Matthew Rhodes-Kropf, “Investment Cycles and Startup Innovation,” Journal of Finance Economics 110, no. 2 (2013): 403–18.

58

Ebrahim Rahbari, Willem Buiter, Joe Seydl, and George Friedlander, “Poor Productivity, Poor Data, and Plenty of Polarisation,” Citi Research, August 12, 2015.

59

Tom Burgis, The Looting Machine: Warlords, Oligarchs, Corporations, Smugglers, and the Theft of Africa’s Wealth (New York: PublicAffairs, 2015).

60

Helge Berger and Mark Spoerer, “Economic Crises and the European Revolutions of 1848,” Journal of Economic History 61, no. 2 (June 2001): 293–326.

61

Martin Paldam, “Inflation and Political Instability in Eight Latin American Countries,” Public Choice 52, no. 2 (1987): 143–68.

62

Marc Bellemare, “Rising Food Prices, Food Price Volatility, and Social Unrest,” American Journal of Agricultural Economics, June 26, 2014.

63

“World Bank Tackles Food Emergency,” BBC News, April 14, 2008.

64

Neil Irwin, “Of Kiwis and Currencies: How a 2 % Inflation Target Became Global Economic Gospel,” New York Times, December 19, 2014.

65

Jim Reid, Nick Burns, and Seb Barker, “Long-Term Asset Return Study: Bonds: The Final Bubble Frontier?” Deutsche Bank Markets Research Report, September 10, 2014.

66

Irving Fisher, “The Debt Deflation Theory of Great Depression,” St. Louis Federal Reserve, n.d.

67

David Hackett Fischer, The Great Wave: Price Revolutions and the Rhythm of History (New York: Oxford University Press, 1996).

68

Claudioo Bordio, Magdalena Erdem, and Andrew Filardo, “The Costs of Deflations: A Historical Perspective,” Bank of International Settlements, 2015.

69

“Toward Operationalizing Macroprudential Policies: When to Act?” chapter 3 in Global Financial Stability Report (International Monetary Fund, September 2011).

70

Òscar Jordà, Moritz Schularick, and Alan Taylor, “Leveraged Bubbles,” National Bureau of Economic Research, Working Paper no. 21486, August 2015.